Do I need a FRED API key to use this skill?

No, the skill is designed to fetch publicly available data directly, allowing you to run analyses immediately without individual API registration.

What visualization formats are supported?

The skill generates comprehensive three-axis PNG charts and structured JSON/Markdown reports for easy integration into research documents or dashboards.

What data sources does this skill rely on?

The skill uses public CSV data from FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data) and the BEA, covering series like unemployment rates, JOLTS job openings, and nominal/real GDP.

Can I input custom economic shocks for projection?

Yes, the skill supports custom scenario modeling where you can define specific unemployment shock sizes and speeds to see their projected impact on the fiscal deficit.

How does it interpret risks for US Treasuries?

It translates the estimated expansion in the deficit-to-GDP ratio into supply-side pressure interpretations, helping to gauge potential shifts in term premiums and long-term interest rates.

Macro Fiscal & Labor Scenario Analyzer

Name: Macro Fiscal & Labor Scenario Analyzer
Author: fatfingererr

byfatfingererr

Ciencia de Datos y ML

Analyzes US fiscal deficit expansion and Treasury risk scenarios during periods of rising unemployment and high GDP growth.

Acerca de

This skill provides a specialized quantitative framework for analyzing the 'Labor-GDP divergence' anomaly in the US economy. It utilizes historical regression models and real-time FRED data to estimate how the fiscal deficit-to-GDP ratio expands when labor markets soften while economic growth remains resilient. By calculating labor slack metrics such as the Unemployed-to-Job Openings (UJO) ratio and the Sahm Rule, the skill helps macro analysts and developers project long-term US Treasury supply shocks and interest rate risks through detailed diagnostic reports and three-axis visual charts.

Características Principales

Quantifies fiscal deficit-to-GDP expansion based on historical labor market elasticities
Generates multi-scenario projections (mild, moderate, severe) for fiscal and bond risk
Produces three-axis visual charts integrating labor, GDP, and fiscal data points
0 GitHub stars
Fetches real-time macro data directly from FRED without requiring API keys
Calculates advanced slack metrics including UJO ratios and Sahm Rule recession triggers

Casos de Uso

Modeling long-term bond yield sensitivity to projected fiscal supply pressures
Estimating government borrowing needs and deficit spikes during labor market transitions
Conducting historical event studies to compare current macro conditions with past cycles

What are Skills?·How to Install

Install with 🐟 Skill.Fish

npx skillfish add fatfingererr/macro-skills analyze-high-unemployment-high-gdp-growth-fiscal-deficit-scenarios

For use in Claude.ai and ChatGPT

Download Skill

GitHub