What kind of data can I extract from individual forecasts?

Beyond probabilities, you can access the 'rationale' provided by individual forecasters, which offers qualitative insights and arguments supporting their specific predictions.

How does the backtesting feature work in this skill?

The skill supports a 'cutoff_date' parameter across its methods, allowing you to retrieve data exactly as it appeared on a specific past date to evaluate forecast accuracy over time.

What is the RAND Forecasting Initiative (RFI)?

RFI (formerly INFER) is a crowdsourced forecasting platform that generates aggregated predictions on critical policy, security, and science issues using collective intelligence.

Is an API key required for the RFI skill?

The SDK requires authentication using environment variables for your RFI account email and password to connect to the Cultivate Labs API.

RAND Forecasting Initiative (RFI)

Name: RAND Forecasting Initiative (RFI)
Author: chestnutforty

bychestnutforty

0•

Ciencia de Datos y ML

Integrates the RAND Forecasting Initiative API to retrieve crowdsourced geopolitical and policy forecasts for strategic analysis.

The sdk-rfi skill enables Claude to interact with the RAND Forecasting Initiative platform, providing access to highly calibrated crowd predictions on geopolitics, national security, and technology policy. This tool is essential for users needing data-driven base rates, expert rationales, and trend analysis for strategic planning or backtesting. By leveraging the Cultivate Labs-powered API, it helps in identifying emerging signals and assessing probabilities for complex global events across various domains like AI governance, nuclear risk, and international economics.

Características Principales

01Filter questions by status, tags, and specific forecasting challenges

02Access crowd probabilities and aggregated forecasts on global policy issues

03Analyze discussion threads and comments for deep-dive signal detection

04Retrieve individual forecaster predictions along with detailed reasoning and rationales

050 GitHub stars

06Perform backtesting and trend analysis using historical data via the cutoff date feature

Casos de Uso

01Backtesting forecasting models against historical crowd performance and actual outcomes

02Establishing calibrated base rates for geopolitical and economic risk assessments

03Mining expert rationales to identify weak signals in technology and security sectors

What are Skills?·How to Install

Install with 🐟 Skill.Fish

npx skillfish add chestnutforty/sdk-rfi sdk-rfi

For use in Claude.ai and ChatGPT

Download Skill