This skill provides a comprehensive framework for designing and executing forecasting tournaments, a methodology proven to transform speculative guessing into a disciplined, measurable skill. Based on the gold-standard practices of the Good Judgment Project, it enables Claude to guide users through the creation of falsifiable questions, the implementation of Brier score metrics for objective accountability, and the application of cognitive debiasing techniques. By structuring predictions as a competitive event, organizations can identify 'superforecasters,' aggregate diverse insights, and significantly improve the accuracy of strategic decisions in business, policy, and research.
Características Principales
01Team-based collaboration and superforecaster selection strategies
02Cognitive debiasing modules and base rate anchoring frameworks
030 GitHub stars
04Falsifiable question design patterns with verifiable resolution criteria
05Standardized Brier score calculation for objective accuracy measurement
06Statistical aggregation and extremizing algorithm implementations
