Expected Value

概要

The Expected Value skill provides a structured framework for quantifying risks and rewards by analyzing multiple possible outcomes and their associated probabilities. It guides users through a comprehensive workflow—from defining decision alternatives and estimating base-rate probabilities to interpreting results through the lens of risk tolerance and utility. Whether navigating sequential decision trees or complex portfolio allocations, this skill helps shift decision-making from subjective gut feelings to a repeatable, data-driven methodology that accounts for uncertainty, time value of money, and potential tail risks.

主な機能

• Framework for probability-weighted average calculations
• Risk preference adjustment using utility functions
• Sequential decision tree modeling and fold-back induction
• 8 GitHub stars
• Sensitivity analysis to identify key decision drivers
• Multi-pattern support for portfolios, competitive games, and continuous distributions

ユースケース

• Comparing high-risk/high-reward product bets against safer alternatives
• Optimizing resource allocation across a portfolio of R&D projects
• Evaluating go/no-go decisions for strategic investments or new feature launches