What is the gambler's fallacy?

The gambler's fallacy is the mistaken belief that if an event occurs more frequently than expected in the past, it will occur less frequently in the future (or vice versa), even if the events are independent.

How does it identify the fallacy?

The skill scans for linguistic patterns suggesting 'due' thinking and applies a five-step framework to reset probability estimates to their objective base rates.

Can this be used for financial forecasting?

Yes, it helps investors avoid the 'martingale trap' and 'catching falling knives' by focusing on valuation and fundamentals rather than previous daily price streaks.

How does this skill help in data analysis?

It helps analysts distinguish between meaningful trends and random streaks in independent data points, preventing the misinterpretation of noise as predictive signal.

Gambler's Fallacy Recognition

Name: Gambler's Fallacy Recognition
Author: lev-os

bylev-os

0•

データサイエンスとML

Identifies and mitigates the gambler's fallacy to improve decision-making in probabilistic and high-risk scenarios.

This skill equips Claude with a framework to recognize and correct the gambler's fallacy—the mistaken belief that independent random events are influenced by previous outcomes. By applying five structured steps, from identifying event independence to calculating Expected Value, this skill helps users avoid 'chasing losses' or making biased predictions in finance, hiring, and risk management. It ensures that decisions are based on objective base rates rather than illusory patterns or the feeling that a specific outcome is 'due' to balance the universe.

主な機能

01Evaluates decisions based on Expected Value (EV) instead of history

02Identifies independence vs. dependence in event sequences

03Calculates probability based on base rates rather than streaks

04Flags 'due for a win' linguistic patterns and cognitive biases

050 GitHub stars

06Distinguishes between coincidental patterns and predictive data

ユースケース

01Optimizing risk management in high-stakes probabilistic domains

02Evaluating investment strategies and market 'rebound' theories

03Reviewing hiring and performance cycles for unbiased assessment

What are Skills?·How to Install

Install with 🐟 Skill.Fish

npx skillfish add lev-os/agents gamblers-fallacy

For use in Claude.ai and ChatGPT

Download Skill