How does this skill improve forecasting accuracy?

It forces users to move beyond vague 'hedging' and instead define specific, falsifiable outcomes supported by causal mechanisms and evidence.

Why are stakes necessary for these predictions?

Stakes provide 'skin in the game,' transforming cheap talk into a costly signal of conviction and ensuring the predictor remains accountable for the outcome.

What is a Long Bet in the context of this skill?

A Long Bet is a public, accountable prediction about the future that requires a clear, binary statement, a documented argument, and a financial stake donated to charity upon resolution.

Can I use this for internal team roadmap debates?

Yes, it is an excellent framework for settling disagreements about technology trends or market shifts where the resolution won't be clear for several years.

Long Bet Prediction Tracker

Name: Long Bet Prediction Tracker
Author: lev-os

bylev-os

0•

生産性とワークフロー

Enables accountable long-term forecasting by establishing rigorous, falsifiable predictions with clear reasoning and charitable stakes.

The Long Bet Project skill implements a structured framework for making and tracking long-term predictions based on the Long Now Foundation's model. It guides users through formulating binary, falsifiable statements, documenting causal arguments, and setting meaningful stakes to ensure accountability. This skill is ideal for individuals and organizations looking to improve forecasting accuracy, settle long-term strategic debates, and build an institutional memory that rewards rigorous thinking over 'cheap talk' and unverified punditry.

主な機能

01Causal mechanism and evidence documentation

02Post-mortem analysis for systematic forecasting improvement

03Public accountability and publication workflows

040 GitHub stars

05Falsifiable prediction structuring for binary outcomes

06Stakes design with charitable allocation logic

ユースケース

01Settling long-term technical or market debates within a development team

02Creating public, name-attached accountability for industry-shaping predictions

03Documenting strategic product forecasts to improve organizational decision-making

What are Skills?·How to Install

Install with 🐟 Skill.Fish

npx skillfish add lev-os/agents long-bet-project

For use in Claude.ai and ChatGPT

Download Skill