Macro Fiscal & Labor Scenario Analyzer

概要

This skill provides a specialized quantitative framework for analyzing the 'Labor-GDP divergence' anomaly in the US economy. It utilizes historical regression models and real-time FRED data to estimate how the fiscal deficit-to-GDP ratio expands when labor markets soften while economic growth remains resilient. By calculating labor slack metrics such as the Unemployed-to-Job Openings (UJO) ratio and the Sahm Rule, the skill helps macro analysts and developers project long-term US Treasury supply shocks and interest rate risks through detailed diagnostic reports and three-axis visual charts.

主な機能

• Quantifies fiscal deficit-to-GDP expansion based on historical labor market elasticities
• Generates multi-scenario projections (mild, moderate, severe) for fiscal and bond risk
• Produces three-axis visual charts integrating labor, GDP, and fiscal data points
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• Fetches real-time macro data directly from FRED without requiring API keys
• Calculates advanced slack metrics including UJO ratios and Sahm Rule recession triggers

ユースケース

• Modeling long-term bond yield sensitivity to projected fiscal supply pressures
• Estimating government borrowing needs and deficit spikes during labor market transitions
• Conducting historical event studies to compare current macro conditions with past cycles