What is the Shell Method for scenario planning?

It is a strategic framework developed by Royal Dutch Shell that replaces single-point forecasting with 2-4 rich, plausible narratives representing genuinely different futures to help navigate uncertainty.

How does this skill help with industry disruption?

By forcing the exploration of 'Type A' scenarios—uncomfortable but plausible futures—it helps break groupthink and identifies early indicators of technological or market shifts.

What are 'no-regret' moves in strategic planning?

No-regret moves are strategic actions and investments that provide value and improve outcomes across all identified future scenarios, regardless of which one materializes.

How many scenarios should I develop?

The framework recommends 2 to 4 scenarios. This range is optimal for capturing meaningful diversity without causing analysis paralysis or narrative over-complexity.

Shell Method Scenario Planning

Name: Shell Method Scenario Planning
Author: Kingly-Agency

byKingly-Agency

生産性とワークフロー

Develops multiple plausible future scenarios to navigate strategic uncertainty and identify robust organizational strategies.

概要

This skill implements the renowned Shell Method for scenario planning, allowing users to move beyond unreliable single-point forecasts. By identifying critical uncertainties and mapping them onto a 2x2 matrix, it generates 2-4 rich narratives that represent distinct possible futures. This systematic approach helps organizations stress-test their current strategies, identify 'no-regret' moves that work across all scenarios, and establish contingent strategies with clear early-warning indicators for long-term strategic resilience.

主な機能

Defines robust 'no-regret' moves and specific contingent strategy triggers
Generates detailed future narratives with causal chains and second-order effects
Stress-tests existing strategies against diverse future states to find vulnerabilities
Distinguishes predetermined trends from critical uncertainties
Constructs 2x2 strategic matrices for multi-scenario exploration
0 GitHub stars

ユースケース

Long-term strategic planning for 5-30 year horizons
Navigating high-stakes decisions where expert opinions or data points conflict
Stress-testing business models against potential industry disruption

概要

主な機能

Defines robust 'no-regret' moves and specific contingent strategy triggers
Generates detailed future narratives with causal chains and second-order effects
Stress-tests existing strategies against diverse future states to find vulnerabilities
Distinguishes predetermined trends from critical uncertainties
Constructs 2x2 strategic matrices for multi-scenario exploration
0 GitHub stars

ユースケース

Long-term strategic planning for 5-30 year horizons
Navigating high-stakes decisions where expert opinions or data points conflict
Stress-testing business models against potential industry disruption