What is the primary function of the Nixtla Event Impact Modeler?

It quantifies how specific events, such as promotions or disasters, affect time series data like contract prices by comparing actual results against a predicted counterfactual.

Does this skill require an external API key?

Yes, a NIXTLA_TIMEGPT_API_KEY is required to access the TimeGPT forecasting engine used for building the counterfactual model.

What data formats are supported for analysis?

The skill requires two CSV files: a prices file containing timestamps and values, and an events file listing event dates and descriptions.

How does the skill calculate 'impact'?

It uses MCMC-based modeling to estimate what the data would have looked like if the event hadn't occurred, then calculates the absolute and relative difference from the actual observed data.

Can I customize the analysis window?

Yes, you can configure the event window size (e.g., 3 days before and after) to capture the full scope of an event's influence.

Nixtla Event Impact Modeler

Name: Nixtla Event Impact Modeler
Author: intent-solutions-io

byintent-solutions-io

데이터 과학 및 ML

Quantifies the causal effect of external events on time series data using TimeGPT and counterfactual modeling.

소개

The Nixtla Event Impact Modeler is a specialized skill designed to distinguish between expected market trends and the actual influence of specific external events. By combining Nixtla's TimeGPT forecasting with MCMC-based CausalImpact analysis, it allows users to quantify the impact of promotions, natural disasters, or policy changes on contract prices. The skill automates the entire workflow from data preparation and treatment/control window configuration to the generation of high-resolution visualizations and comprehensive statistical reports, making it an essential tool for data-driven decision-making and ROI assessment.

주요 기능

High-accuracy time series forecasting powered by Nixtla TimeGPT
MCMC-based counterfactual modeling via CausalImpact
Generation of visual impact plots and structured markdown reports
Automated data validation and preparation for time series analysis
0 GitHub stars
Quantifiable metrics for absolute and relative event effects

사용 사례

Evaluating the causal effect of regulatory or policy changes on contract costs
Assessing the economic consequences and recovery timelines of natural disasters
Measuring the ROI and price impact of marketing and promotional campaigns

소개

주요 기능

High-accuracy time series forecasting powered by Nixtla TimeGPT
MCMC-based counterfactual modeling via CausalImpact
Generation of visual impact plots and structured markdown reports
Automated data validation and preparation for time series analysis
0 GitHub stars
Quantifiable metrics for absolute and relative event effects

사용 사례

Evaluating the causal effect of regulatory or policy changes on contract costs
Assessing the economic consequences and recovery timelines of natural disasters
Measuring the ROI and price impact of marketing and promotional campaigns