How does this skill prevent base rate neglect?

It implements a 7-step process that requires identifying a reference class, researching statistics, and making only conservative adjustments based on specific evidence, preventing the AI from being distracted by vivid but non-predictive details.

What are base rates in the context of AI reasoning?

Base rates are the underlying statistical frequencies of events in a general population. This skill forces the AI to consider 'what usually happens' before looking at the specific details of a unique case.

Is this skill based on specific psychological frameworks?

Yes, it is based on the research of Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky regarding judgment under uncertainty and the difference between the inside and outside view.

Can this skill help with software project management?

Yes. It is particularly effective for project planning by using historical timelines and success rates of similar projects (the outside view) as a baseline for new estimates.

Base Rate Thinking Pattern

Name: Base Rate Thinking Pattern
Author: lev-os

bylev-os

0•

Data Science & ML

Anchors predictions and decision-making in statistical frequencies to avoid cognitive bias and improve estimation accuracy.

The Base Rate Thinking Pattern skill equips Claude with a structured framework for making empirical predictions based on historical data rather than intuition. By prioritizing the 'outside view'—what usually happens in a reference class—before adjusting for specific case details, this skill helps users avoid 'base rate neglect.' It is essential for project estimation, risk assessment, and strategic planning, ensuring that Claude provides grounded, statistically-sound advice that accounts for the inherent probabilities of success or failure in a given domain.

Key Features

01Anti-pattern detection to identify and correct base rate neglect in reasoning

02Structured reference class identification to find comparable historical data

030 GitHub stars

04Data quality assessment to evaluate the reliability and recency of base rates

05Conservative adjustment methodology to prevent over-weighting case-specific details

06Evidence-based research process for establishing statistical priors

Use Cases

01Evaluating business or product success probabilities based on historical reference classes

02Conducting data-driven risk assessments and diagnostic evaluations

03Estimating software project timelines and budgets using industry benchmarks

What are Skills?·How to Install

Install with 🐟 Skill.Fish

npx skillfish add lev-os/agents base-rates

For use in Claude.ai and ChatGPT

Download Skill