About
This skill provides a structured framework for applying Bayesian reasoning to complex decision-making and forecasting. It guides users through establishing prior beliefs using base rates, evaluating the diagnostic strength of new evidence via likelihood ratios, and calculating posterior probabilities. By facilitating explicit documentation of the reasoning process and focusing on calibration, this skill helps users mitigate cognitive biases like overconfidence and anchoring, making it ideal for technical risk assessment, project forecasting, and data-driven hypothesis testing.
