How does this skill help with commodity ETF analysis?

It analyzes the shape of the futures curve to determine if an ETF will face a 'roll cost' (contango) or benefit from a 'roll gain' (backwardation), explaining tracking error relative to spot prices.

Does this skill cover specific commodity sectors?

Yes, it includes specialized knowledge for energy, precious metals, industrial metals, agriculture, and livestock, including their unique seasonality and demand drivers.

What is the difference between spot price and futures-based returns?

Futures-based returns include roll yield and collateral yield in addition to spot price changes, which can lead to significant divergence in performance over time.

Can this skill calculate specific financial formulas?

Yes, it provides implementation guidance for cost of carry, annualized roll yield, and implied convenience yield formulas to quantify market dynamics.

Commodity Market Analysis

Name: Commodity Market Analysis
Author: JoelLewis

byJoelLewis

•

Data Science & ML

Analyzes commodity markets, futures curve dynamics, and roll yield mechanics to evaluate investment strategies and inflation hedges.

This skill empowers Claude to perform sophisticated analysis of commodity markets, moving beyond simple price tracking to evaluate the complexities of futures-based investing. It provides deep domain expertise on contango and backwardation, calculates annualized roll yields, and decomposes total returns into spot, roll, and collateral components. By applying cost-of-carry models and assessing supply/demand fundamentals across energy, metals, and agriculture, the skill helps users understand why commodity ETF returns often diverge from spot prices and how various sectors function as diversifiers or inflation hedges within a wealth management context.

Key Features

01Analyzes futures curve dynamics including contango and backwardation mechanics.

02Models theoretical futures pricing using cost-of-carry and implied convenience yield formulas.

03Evaluates commodity index construction differences between S&P GSCI and Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM).

0418 GitHub stars

05Calculates roll yield, collateral yield, and total return decompositions for futures-based investments.

06Assesses sector-specific fundamentals for energy, precious metals, industrial metals, and agriculture.

Use Cases

01Assessing the historical and structural effectiveness of commodities as a hedge against unexpected inflation.

02Explaining the performance gap between a physical commodity's spot price and a futures-based ETF.

03Evaluating the impact of market scarcity or oversupply on the shape of the futures curve.

What are Skills?·How to Install

Install with 🐟 Skill.Fish

npx skillfish add joellewis/finance_skills commodities

For use in Claude.ai and ChatGPT

Download Skill