What is the 'assumption reversal' technique?

It is a creative method where you identify core assumptions about a problem and imagine the opposite to be true, which helps break conventional thinking and uncover innovative pivots.

What is a pre-mortem analysis?

A pre-mortem is a management strategy where you imagine a project has failed in the future and work backward to identify the causes, allowing you to mitigate risks proactively before they occur.

How do counterfactuals help with decision-making?

Counterfactuals help isolate causality by asking how an outcome would have changed if one specific variable were different, revealing the true impact of past decisions and informing future ones.

Can this skill help with project risk management?

Yes, it includes tools for stress testing plans against optimistic, pessimistic, and extreme scenarios to ensure your strategy is resilient across multiple plausible futures.

Hypotheticals and Counterfactuals

Name: Hypotheticals and Counterfactuals
Author: lyndonkl

bylyndonkl

•

Productivity & Workflow

Enables Claude to explore alternative scenarios, test assumptions, and perform pre-mortem analysis to improve decision-making and risk assessment.

About

The Hypotheticals and Counterfactuals skill empowers Claude to move beyond linear analysis by engaging in structured 'what-if' thinking. By combining backward-looking counterfactual reasoning with forward-looking scenario planning, it helps users uncover hidden risks, understand causal relationships, and stress-test strategic decisions. Whether you are conducting a project pre-mortem to prevent failure or reversing core assumptions to spark innovation, this skill provides the frameworks and guardrails necessary to explore possible futures and extract actionable insights for more robust planning.

Key Features

8 GitHub stars
Prospective Hindsight Pre-mortems for proactive risk identification
Assumption Reversal techniques to challenge and evolve mental models
Counterfactual Causal Analysis to understand past outcomes and impact
Multi-scenario planning for optimistic, baseline, and pessimistic futures
2x2 Uncertainty Matrix generation for complex strategic foresight

Use Cases

Conducting a project pre-mortem to identify and mitigate potential failure modes before a major launch
Stress testing a business strategy against extreme market conditions or 'black swan' events
Analyzing past architectural decisions to isolate key causal factors and improve future system design

About

Key Features

8 GitHub stars
Prospective Hindsight Pre-mortems for proactive risk identification
Assumption Reversal techniques to challenge and evolve mental models
Counterfactual Causal Analysis to understand past outcomes and impact
Multi-scenario planning for optimistic, baseline, and pessimistic futures
2x2 Uncertainty Matrix generation for complex strategic foresight

Use Cases

Conducting a project pre-mortem to identify and mitigate potential failure modes before a major launch
Stress testing a business strategy against extreme market conditions or 'black swan' events
Analyzing past architectural decisions to isolate key causal factors and improve future system design