Can this skill be used for non-financial analysis?

While optimized for investment portfolios, its framework of assumption challenging and scenario inversion can be adapted for any strategic decision-making process.

How does this skill handle overconfidence in AI analysis?

It uses strict rules, such as capping scenario probabilities at 80% and requiring at least two distinct risks for every recommendation, to ensure a balanced perspective.

When should I trigger this skill in my workflow?

It should be applied after completing a sector forecast, recommending a fund, or finalizing an asset allocation to ensure the final decision has been properly vetted for weaknesses.

What is the primary purpose of the Devil's Advocate skill?

The primary purpose is to provide a systematic counter-argument to positive investment conclusions, helping users uncover hidden risks and avoid the trap of overconfidence.

Investment Devil's Advocate

Name: Investment Devil's Advocate
Author: orientpine

byorientpine

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Analytics & Monitoring

Systematically challenges investment hypotheses and identifies hidden risks to prevent overconfidence in financial analysis.

The Investment Devil's Advocate skill provides a rigorous framework for Claude to stress-test investment strategies, sector forecasts, and portfolio allocations. By intentionally adopting an opposing viewpoint, it exposes underlying assumptions, explores 'what could go wrong' scenarios, and references historical failure patterns to counter confirmation bias. This skill acts as a final line of defense for analysts, ensuring that financial decisions are grounded in a balanced understanding of both potential rewards and critical vulnerabilities.

Key Features

01Scenario inversion framework to visualize triggers for negative outcomes

02Systematic assumption challenging to expose hidden premises in financial models

03Historical failure pattern matching against bubbles and market crashes

04Structured 'What Could Go Wrong' checklists covering macro, sector, and fund-specific risks

059 GitHub stars

06Overconfidence detection that triggers mandatory risk assessments for high-conviction claims

Use Cases

01Stress-testing a high-conviction sector outlook or stock recommendation

02Identifying hidden risks in mutual fund or ETF selections before final commitment

03Evaluating potential failure scenarios for a new asset allocation strategy

What are Skills?·How to Install

Install with 🐟 Skill.Fish

npx skillfish add orientpine/honeypot devil-advocate

For use in Claude.ai and ChatGPT