How does Bayesian reasoning work within this skill?

It provides a method for incrementally updating your initial probability estimates (priors) as new, specific evidence or data points become available.

What is the Probability Claude Code Skill?

It is a specialized capability that provides a systematic approach to quantifying uncertainty, moving away from binary thinking toward likelihood-based predictions.

How does this skill help avoid 'False Precision'?

The framework encourages the use of round numbers and ranges when data is limited, preventing the illusion of accuracy that comes from overly specific percentages.

When should I apply probabilistic thinking?

Apply it during strategic decisions, hiring, investment analysis, and any scenario where the outcome is not guaranteed and requires weighing multiple possible futures.

What is the difference between decision quality and outcome quality?

This skill emphasizes that a good decision can result in a bad outcome due to probability; the goal is to refine the process to ensure high-quality decisions over time.

Probability Thinking Framework

Name: Probability Thinking Framework
Author: lev-os

bylev-os

0•

Productivity & Workflow

Quantifies uncertainty and improves decision-making through systematic likelihood estimation and Bayesian reasoning.

The Probability skill provides a robust framework for Claude to move beyond binary certainties and adopt a sophisticated probabilistic mindset. It enables the agent to evaluate strategic risks, forecast project outcomes, and update beliefs based on new evidence using concepts like base rates, reference class forecasting, and scenario analysis. This skill is essential for navigating high-stakes environments where outcomes are uncertain, helping users separate decision quality from outcome quality to achieve better long-term results.

Key Features

010 GitHub stars

02Expected Value (EV) calculation for comparing options with different risk profiles

03Calibration testing to identify overconfidence and improve predictive accuracy

04Scenario decomposition to ensure mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive outcomes

05Systematic Bayesian updating to refine estimates as new evidence emerges

06Base rate research and reference class forecasting for objective anchoring

Use Cases

01Strategic resource allocation based on risk-adjusted ROI and success likelihoods

02Evaluating business opportunities and product launches under high uncertainty

03Quantifying technical risks, security threats, and project failure modes

What are Skills?·How to Install

Install with 🐟 Skill.Fish

npx skillfish add lev-os/agents probability

For use in Claude.ai and ChatGPT

Download Skill