How does this skill prevent scope creep?

It requires the explicit definition of 'No-Gos' and 'Rabbit Holes' in every pitch, ensuring the team knows exactly what is excluded and what technical risks might blow up the timeline.

When should I use the Expected Value (EV) assessment?

Use EV assessment for larger bets to weigh the potential upside and learning value against the probability of success and opportunity costs.

What is the difference between Type 1 and Type 2 decisions?

Type 1 decisions are irreversible 'one-way doors' like core technology changes, while Type 2 decisions are reversible 'two-way doors' like UI changes that can be easily reverted or adjusted.

What is an 'appetite' in product sizing?

Instead of estimating how long a task will take, appetite defines how much time you are willing to spend (e.g., 2 weeks or 6 weeks). If the solution doesn't fit the appetite, it must be reshaped or abandoned.

Product Bet Sizing

Name: Product Bet Sizing
Author: assimovt

byassimovt

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Productivity & Workflow

Evaluates product initiatives using Bezos's decision framework and Shape Up's appetite model to optimize resource allocation and project scoping.

This skill streamlines product strategy by helping teams distinguish between irreversible Type 1 decisions and reversible Type 2 decisions, ensuring the right amount of deliberation is applied to each. It provides a structured methodology for shaping product pitches based on the Shape Up framework, defining work by 'appetite' rather than estimates, and identifying critical 'rabbit holes' and 'no-gos' to prevent scope creep. By calculating Expected Value (EV) and focusing on learning outcomes, it empowers developers and product managers to move faster on low-risk features while maintaining rigor on high-stakes architectural changes.

Key Features

01Identify 'rabbit holes' and 'no-gos' to mitigate risk and define scope boundaries

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03Generate structured Shape Up pitches including problem, appetite, and solution

04Define breadboard-level solutions to focus on logic and flow over visual design

05Classify decisions as Type 1 (irreversible) or Type 2 (reversible) to determine process weight

06Calculate Expected Value (EV) factoring in upside, probability, and learning value

Use Cases

01Evaluating whether a proposed architectural change is a one-way or two-way door

02Assessing the strategic value of a high-risk initiative using EV and learning potential

03Shaping a feature pitch for a specific 2-week or 6-week development appetite

What are Skills?·How to Install

Install with 🐟 Skill.Fish

npx skillfish add assimovt/productskills bet-sizing

For use in Claude.ai and ChatGPT

Download Skill