Is this skill only for scientific research?

No, it is highly effective for any field requiring critical thinking, including hiring, product management, and investment due diligence.

What is the Sagan Standard?

It is the principle that the strength of evidence must be proportional to the implausibility of a claim, often phrased as 'extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.'

How does this skill help with software debugging?

It prevents developers from chasing exotic causes, like hardware failures or cosmic rays, until mundane explanations like logic errors or race conditions have been ruled out with evidence.

How does the skill handle novel ideas?

It distinguishes between 'novel' (new but consistent with known laws) and 'extraordinary' (contradicting established facts), ensuring innovation isn't dismissed while maintaining high standards for paradigm shifts.

Sagan Standard Evidence Evaluator

Name: Sagan Standard Evidence Evaluator
Author: lev-os

bylev-os

0•

Productivity & Workflow

Calibrates the burden of proof for assertions based on their implausibility to ensure rigorous decision-making and debugging.

The Sagan Standard skill implements a critical epistemological framework for Claude, enabling it to evaluate claims using the principle that extraordinary assertions require extraordinary evidence. By formalizing Bayesian reasoning, it helps users distinguish between mundane facts and paradigm-shifting claims that require higher verification thresholds. This is particularly useful in technical debugging, hiring assessments, scientific research, and strategic planning, ensuring that complex or unlikely hypotheses are met with appropriate skepticism before being accepted as truth.

Key Features

01Proportional evidence threshold calibration

02Bias control and alternative explanation routing

030 GitHub stars

04Mechanism-based causal verification

05Multi-level evidence quality ladder implementation

06Bayesian prior probability assessment

Use Cases

01Evaluating revolutionary scientific or technical claims for plausibility

02Debugging complex system failures where exotic causes are suspected over mundane errors

03Performing due diligence on 'too-good-to-be-true' business or product strategies

What are Skills?·How to Install

Install with 🐟 Skill.Fish

npx skillfish add lev-os/agents sagan-standard

For use in Claude.ai and ChatGPT

Download Skill