This skill integrates Philip Tetlock's 10 Commandments of Superforecasting into Claude's reasoning process, enabling users to generate more accurate predictions and make better decisions under uncertainty. It guides Claude to break down complex problems using Fermi estimation, balance base rates with specific data, apply Bayesian updating to new evidence, and track calibration. This is particularly useful for product managers, analysts, and developers who need to estimate project timelines, market trends, or technical outcomes with high precision by identifying clashing causal forces and avoiding round-number guessing.
Key Features
01Base rate (outside view) and specific (inside view) analysis
02Granular probability assignment for increased precision
03Bayesian evidence updating to prevent overreaction
04Post-mortem frameworks for error-balancing and calibration
050 GitHub stars
06Fermi estimation for breaking down complex questions
