How does it assist with recession forecasting?

It utilizes historical inversion patterns and the NY Fed probit model to estimate recession probabilities based on curve steepness and duration.

What metrics does the Yield Curve Analysis skill cover?

It analyzes key metrics including 2s10s, 3m10Y, and 5s30s spreads, as well as term premiums, key rate durations, and implied forward rates.

Does it include advanced curve fitting models?

Yes, it supports several fitting methods such as Nelson-Siegel, bootstrapping, and cubic spline methods for precise rate modeling.

Can this skill help design specific fixed-income trades?

Yes, it provides methodologies for constructing duration-weighted trades like bull/bear steepeners, flatteners, and butterfly spreads.

Yield Curve Analysis

Name: Yield Curve Analysis
Author: brainbytes-dev

bybrainbytes-dev

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Data Science & ML

Analyzes interest rate term structures to generate macro trading signals and design sophisticated fixed-income strategies.

The Yield Curve Analysis skill enables Claude to perform professional-grade quantitative finance tasks focused on the interest rate market. It provides a comprehensive framework for interpreting curve shapes—such as inversions, steepeners, and flatteners—to assess economic health and predict recession probabilities. Traders and analysts can use this skill to design duration-neutral trades, calculate term premiums using ACM models, and implement curve-fitting techniques like Nelson-Siegel. By integrating macro indicators with precise technical metrics, it transforms Claude into a specialized assistant for fixed-income portfolio management and macro-economic forecasting.

Key Features

01Term premium decomposition and key rate duration risk assessment

021 GitHub stars

03Advanced butterfly trade design for identifying belly-of-the-curve mispricing

04Recession signaling analysis via 2s10s and 3m10Y spread monitoring

05Quantitative curve fitting using Nelson-Siegel and spline methods

06Construction of duration-weighted curve trades including steepeners and flatteners

Use Cases

01Forecasting economic cycles and recession probabilities using Treasury yield models

02Designing duration-neutral fixed income portfolios to profit from rate path expectations

03Evaluating central bank policy impacts on different segments of the interest rate curve

Key Features

01Term premium decomposition and key rate duration risk assessment

021 GitHub stars

03Advanced butterfly trade design for identifying belly-of-the-curve mispricing

04Recession signaling analysis via 2s10s and 3m10Y spread monitoring

05Quantitative curve fitting using Nelson-Siegel and spline methods

06Construction of duration-weighted curve trades including steepeners and flatteners

Use Cases

01Forecasting economic cycles and recession probabilities using Treasury yield models

02Designing duration-neutral fixed income portfolios to profit from rate path expectations

03Evaluating central bank policy impacts on different segments of the interest rate curve