How does this skill help with product management?

It helps quantify the potential impact of different features or initiatives, allowing you to prioritize tasks based on their net expected value (EV minus cost) rather than just gut feeling.

Does this skill account for high-risk or catastrophic failure?

Yes, the framework includes steps for assessing risk tolerance and ruin risk, ensuring that you don't take high-variance bets that could lead to bankruptcy even if they have a positive expected value.

What is the Expected Value (EV) framework?

Expected Value is a mathematical method for making decisions by multiplying the probability of each possible outcome by its value and summing them to find the average expected result in the long run.

When should I use the Expected Value skill in Claude Code?

Use it whenever you face choices with uncertain outcomes, such as prioritizing a product roadmap, choosing between different technical implementations, or managing resource allocation.

Expected Value Decision Framework

Name: Expected Value Decision Framework
Author: lev-os

bylev-os

0•

生产力与工作流

Facilitates rational decision-making by calculating probability-weighted averages for uncertain outcomes and risk assessment.

The Expected Value (EV) skill is a mathematical framework that empowers developers and product owners to make optimal decisions under uncertainty by calculating the weighted average of all possible outcomes. This skill provides a structured process for defining scenarios, estimating probabilities, and quantifying values, transforming subjective guesses into data-driven strategies. It is particularly valuable for product prioritization, resource allocation, and evaluating high-stakes technical directions where success is probabilistic rather than binary, helping users focus on long-term profitability over short-term variance.

主要功能

01Step-by-step Expected Value (EV) calculation workflow

020 GitHub stars

03Risk-adjusted decision analysis including Kelly Criterion integration

04Comparative analysis of multiple options against a 'do nothing' baseline

05Structured outcome modeling and probability estimation

06Identification and avoidance of common decision-making anti-patterns

使用场景

01Evaluating technical debt repayment versus new feature development in resource-constrained environments

02Prioritizing product features by comparing potential ARR impact against development costs

03Assessing marketing channels or R&D projects with high variance and uncertain success rates

What are Skills?·How to Install

Install with 🐟 Skill.Fish

npx skillfish add lev-os/agents expected-value

For use in Claude.ai and ChatGPT

Download Skill