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The Forecast Pre-Mortem skill helps analysts and decision-makers avoid overconfidence by systematically exploring potential failure scenarios. By adopting the 'crystal ball' technique—where an event is assumed to have already failed—it forces the identification of 'unknown unknowns,' tail risks, and structural flaws that are often missed during standard planning. This skill guides users through structured workflows like backcasting narratives, dragonfly-eye perspectives for multi-viewpoint synthesis, and quantitative probability adjustments, ultimately leading to more robust and accurate forecasting outcomes.
