What is the 'assumption reversal' technique?

It is a creative method where you identify core assumptions about a problem and imagine the opposite to be true, which helps break conventional thinking and uncover innovative pivots.

What is a pre-mortem analysis?

A pre-mortem is a management strategy where you imagine a project has failed in the future and work backward to identify the causes, allowing you to mitigate risks proactively before they occur.

How do counterfactuals help with decision-making?

Counterfactuals help isolate causality by asking how an outcome would have changed if one specific variable were different, revealing the true impact of past decisions and informing future ones.

Can this skill help with project risk management?

Yes, it includes tools for stress testing plans against optimistic, pessimistic, and extreme scenarios to ensure your strategy is resilient across multiple plausible futures.

Hypotheticals and Counterfactuals

Name: Hypotheticals and Counterfactuals
Author: lyndonkl

bylyndonkl

•

生产力与工作流

Enables Claude to explore alternative scenarios, test assumptions, and perform pre-mortem analysis to improve decision-making and risk assessment.

The Hypotheticals and Counterfactuals skill empowers Claude to move beyond linear analysis by engaging in structured 'what-if' thinking. By combining backward-looking counterfactual reasoning with forward-looking scenario planning, it helps users uncover hidden risks, understand causal relationships, and stress-test strategic decisions. Whether you are conducting a project pre-mortem to prevent failure or reversing core assumptions to spark innovation, this skill provides the frameworks and guardrails necessary to explore possible futures and extract actionable insights for more robust planning.

主要功能

018 GitHub stars

02Prospective Hindsight Pre-mortems for proactive risk identification

03Assumption Reversal techniques to challenge and evolve mental models

04Counterfactual Causal Analysis to understand past outcomes and impact

05Multi-scenario planning for optimistic, baseline, and pessimistic futures

062x2 Uncertainty Matrix generation for complex strategic foresight

使用场景

01Conducting a project pre-mortem to identify and mitigate potential failure modes before a major launch

02Stress testing a business strategy against extreme market conditions or 'black swan' events

03Analyzing past architectural decisions to isolate key causal factors and improve future system design

What are Skills?·How to Install

Install with 🐟 Skill.Fish

npx skillfish add lyndonkl/claude hypotheticals-counterfactuals

For use in Claude.ai and ChatGPT

Download Skill