Incremental Belief Updating

This skill implements the forecasting methodology pioneered by Philip Tetlock and the Good Judgment Project, enabling Claude to move away from binary predictions toward granular, Bayesian-inspired probability tracking. It helps users manage uncertainty in complex domains—such as software delivery timelines, security risks, or market shifts—by systematically updating beliefs in small, proportional increments as new data arrives. By integrating base rates and identifying information triggers, this skill improves calibration and ensures that decisions are based on the latest evidence rather than outdated assumptions.

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