When should I use the extremizing feature?

Use extremizing when you are aggregating multiple independent forecasts; it corrects for the tendency of crowd averages to be too conservative or moderate.

What is the Kelly Criterion in this skill?

The Kelly Criterion is a mathematical formula used within this skill to determine the optimal fraction of your bankroll to bet in order to maximize long-term wealth growth.

How does this skill help with prediction markets?

It provides tools to convert market odds (decimal, fractional, or American) into probabilities and identifies 'edge' by comparing them to your own forecasts.

What is a Brier score and why should I optimize it?

A Brier score measures the accuracy of probabilistic forecasts. Optimizing it helps you become more calibrated, ensuring your 70% predictions actually happen 70% of the time.

Market Mechanics & Betting

Name: Market Mechanics & Betting
Author: lyndonkl

bylyndonkl

•

数据科学与机器学习

Translates probabilistic beliefs into actionable betting decisions and optimized resource allocation strategies.

Market Mechanics & Betting is a specialized skill designed to bridge the gap between abstract probability and concrete action. It provides a robust quantitative framework for calculating betting edges, determining optimal stake sizes using the Kelly Criterion, and refining forecast accuracy through Brier score optimization and crowd wisdom extremizing. Whether you are navigating prediction markets, managing a portfolio of speculative bets, or seeking to improve long-term calibration, this skill equips Claude with the mathematical rigor needed to maximize expected value and manage risk effectively.

主要功能

01Brier score optimization to track and improve forecast calibration

028 GitHub stars

03Extremizing algorithms for aggregating and refining crowd wisdom

04Edge detection by comparing personal probabilities against market odds

05Kelly Criterion calculations for optimal bet sizing and risk management

06Portfolio hedging strategies to manage correlated betting risks

使用场景

01Optimizing capital allocation in prediction markets like Polymarket or Kalshi

02Calculating the mathematical edge in sports betting or speculative ventures

03Aggregating and extremizing multiple expert forecasts for higher accuracy

What are Skills?·How to Install

Install with 🐟 Skill.Fish

npx skillfish add lyndonkl/claude market-mechanics-betting

For use in Claude.ai and ChatGPT

Download Skill