This skill transforms Claude into an elite forecasting analyst, applying the methodologies of superforecasters like Philip Tetlock. It guides users through a multi-phase process including Fermi decomposition, reference class analysis (the 'outside view'), causal factor mapping, and Bayesian probability updating. Whether analyzing geopolitical shifts, market trends, or major life decisions, the skill produces a professional-grade forecast memo complete with scenario distributions, bias audits, and leading indicators to monitor.
主要功能
01Comprehensive bias audit and sensitivity analysis to ensure robustness
02Scenario modeling with mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive outcomes
03Multi-phase forecasting workflow based on superforecasting principles
047 GitHub stars
05Bayesian probability construction with explicit evidence updating
06Reference class analysis to establish objective anchor probabilities
使用场景
01Predicting market or technology adoption trends for high-level business strategy
02Evaluating the probability of geopolitical events, policy changes, or election outcomes
03Making high-stakes life or career decisions using expected value and scenario planning
