Assumption Test
Surfaces hidden product assumptions, ranks them by risk across four strategic lenses, and designs cheap experiments to validate before building.
The Assumption Test skill helps product managers and teams de-risk bets before committing engineering resources or budget. Grounded in David J. Bland and Alex Osterwalder's Testing Business Ideas framework, this skill systematically decomposes ideas into implicit dependencies across desirability, viability, feasibility, and usability. It calculates a risk score based on the likelihood of being false multiplied by the damage if false, isolates the top leap-of-faith assumptions, and designs lightweight, cost-effective experiments—such as fake doors, customer interviews, or prototypes—complete with explicit kill criteria and preset pass/fail metrics.